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Global Trade Posts Sharp Decline 2009年 01月 14日 12:06Trade among nations is declining sharply around the world, an unusual development even in a recession -- and one that makes it more difficult for countries to pull out of their economic dive. Combined exports and imports by the U.S., the world's biggest economy, dropped 18% in the four months from July to November, to $326 billion from nearly $398 billion in Commerce Department figures released Tuesday. Two-thirds of the drop was in imports, which helps explain why so many countries dependent on trade with the U.S. are suffering: Their exports, a key source of growth, are falling as spending by U.S. consumers and companies continues to sour. Japan, the No. 2 economy and heavily dependent on exports for growth, posted a 27% decline in November compared with a year earlier, its Ministry of Finance said Tuesday -- the biggest slide it has ever recorded. Its imports also dived by 14%, contributing to the pain of exporters elsewhere in turn. China posted its most severe foreign-trade decline in at least a decade, in government figures for December released Tuesday. Germany had its worst export drop this decade in November, down 11.8% from the previous year; the next three biggest Europen economies had drops nearly as bad, according to a calculation by The Wall Street Journal. The simultaneous trade losses among the world's big economies intensify pressure on their companies to find new customers, but consumers are cutting their spending virtually everywhere. The U.S., Japan and Europe's 16-country euro zone are already in recession, and the red-hot growth seen in emerging countries in recent years is cooling rapidly, including in China. 'We think this will end up being the worst global recession since the second World War,' said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Mass. Don Brasher, founder and owner of Geneva-based Global Trade Information Services, said he expects the downward trend in global trade activity to continue for at least the next six months. In 15 years of running his company, he says, 'I've never seen this before.' The downturn in trade is hitting big and small companies hard. Maersk Group, the world's biggest container shipping company, said last month that it is laying up eight huge vessels due to a drop in business. The group's chief executive, Nils S. Andersen, told reporters Tuesday that he doesn't expect a quick turnaround. In West Babylon, N.Y., Galkin Automated Products Corp. saw exports of its machinery used to make mattresses start to drop abruptly in October. The slowdown then spread to all its markets, including Indonesia, Australia and the Middle East. 'Nobody's immune,' says Chief Executive Paul Block. 'The fist has just continued to clench itself, and it's happening everywhere.' Galkin has shed five of its 30 workers and cut back everyone else's hours by 15% to try to preserve jobs. While the growth of trade generally slows during recessions, it doesn't usually contract world-wide; the last time it did was 1982. But in December, the World Bank projected global trade would decline by 2.1% this year, which would top the 1.9% decline seen in 1975. The recent trade declines are accentuated by a sharp fall in commodity prices, including a historic slide in the price of oil. Petroleum imports alone drove just over half the total U.S. declines in November from the previous month, falling $13.6 billion while U.S. imports overall fell by $25 billion. There's a silver lining there for the economy, as the lower prices provide relief to households and businesses. The average price per barrel of imported crude oil dropped sharply to $66.72 in November from $92.02 the previous month and has since fallen further. That will play a key role in lowering the U.S.'s import bill in the months ahead. Falling trade also is reducing the U.S. trade deficit because imports are falling more than exports -- in November, U.S. imports fell 12% compared with 5.8% for exports. The deficit narrowed to $40.4 billion from $56.7 billion in October; it was the smallest deficit in five years. That in turn helps raise estimates of U.S. fourth-quarter gross domestic product. But U.S. GDP is still expected to show an annualized drop of about 5% for the fourth quarter, the worst in a quarter-century, and the underlying deterioration in global demand is expected hurt growth in 2009. Aside from oil, U.S. imports also are falling because of lower demand for foreign goods and services. U.S. imports of autos and related parts fell $1.2 billion in November, for instance, while imports of foreign-made consumer goods such as televisions, jewelry and toys dropped by $3.8 billion. In turn, foreign countries showed a reduced appetite for U.S. goods and services. At Nomacorc LLC, a maker of synthetic wine corks in Zebulon, N.C., Chief Executive Lars von Kantzow says the company's exports are being hurt by two new factors: Wine consumption in Europe is going down in many key markets as a result of the recession. And amid a credit crunch, retailers, distributors and wineries are all rushing to cut their inventories in an effort to free up cash. In Brussels, Charlie Gillet is seeing a similar trend in his job as a salesman for the 12-employee World Trading Company. It sells cleaning products to 1,200 companies, including many factories that make goods to export. 'Factories are ordering 30% to 50% cuts in stocks of cleaning products,' he said. 'They want to hold half as much in inventory and they want 60 days to pay their bills instead of 45 days.' General Federation of Belgian Workers, the Belgian socialist workers union, held an emergency meeting Tuesday morning to discuss the decline in export-based production, says spokesman Daniel Richard. 'We're all preparing for huge layoffs in the coming months,' he says, adding that he fears for what remains of Belgium's heavy industry. Belgian law allows companies to temporarily lay off workers and rehire them later without paying a steep penalty. The woes of the world's biggest economies are especially worrisome to developing nations, whose cheaper labor and raw materials helped those markets become global production centers and rising prosperity, in turn, cultivated their own domestic demand. Exports from China in December fell 2.8% from a year earlier, extending the 2.2% decline in November, China's Customs agency said Tuesday. China's imports fell even more sharply, dropping 21.3% in December after a 17.9% fall in November. Exports have contributed around 20% of China's economic growth since 2005, up from a single-digit share in previous years. That boost from overseas demand helped charge China's five-year run of 10%-plus economic growth. It won't be easy to replace that quickly, one reason why China's growth rate is expected to slow sharply this year, to 8% or lower. Those combined strains are on display in Yiwu, a city four hours' drive southwest of Shanghai. It's often called the dime-store capital of the world, thanks to its Yiwu International Commodity Trade City, a 370-acre market with more than 60,000 stores selling everything from socks to glittering costume jewelry. In good times, Yiwu is overrun with buyers from U.S., Europe and the Middle East snapping up things like zippers and notebooks in bulk. But with new orders from the U.S. and Europe dropping recently, merchants are trying to make up the shortfall by cultivating new markets from Latin America and Russia, as well as domestic Chinese consumers -- with lukewarm results. One of the center's more ambitious ventures was the opening of a new wing in late 2007 that was intended to lure Chinese consumers with Korean child seats, Californian wines, Japanese ceramics and Italian shoes. A year later, traders in that section report hardly any business at all. Kelly Evans / John W. Miller / Mei Fong
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Copyright 2006 - 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved
据 美国商务部周二公布的数据，去年7-11月这四个月期间，世界第一大经济体美国的月度进出口总额从近3,980亿美元降至3,260亿美元，降幅18%。 进口额的下滑占了其中的三分之二，这也解释了很多依赖对美贸易的国家受到冲击的原因。由于美国消费者和企业支出不断下降，在这些国家，作为经济增长重要推 动力的出口正在减少。
日本财务省周二表示，11月份出口较上年同期下滑27%，创下有史以来最大降幅。进口也大幅下滑14%，而这又相应损害了其他国家的出口。世界第二大经济体日本严重依赖出口实现增长。
据中国政府周二公布的12月份数据，中国外贸降幅创下至少10年来的最高纪录。德国11月份出口降幅也为10年来最高水平，较上年同期下滑11.8%。据《华尔街日报》的一项计算，除德国外的欧洲另三大经济体的出口也出现类似降幅。
世 界各主要经济体的对外贸易同时下滑，增加了这些国家的企业寻找新客户的压力，而世界各地的消费者实际上都在削减支出。美国、日本和欧元区16国已经陷入衰 退之中，而包括中国在内的新兴经济体近年来出现的白热化增长也在迅速降温。IHS Global Insight驻马萨诸塞州列克星敦的首席美国经济学家尼格尔•高特(Nigel Gault)说，我们认为这将是二战以来最严重的一场全球性衰退。
世界贸易信息服务股份公司(Global Trade Information Services)的老板唐•布拉舍(Don Brasher)说，他预计全球贸易活动的下行走势将至少再持续6个月。他说，在运营这家公司的15年中，自己从未见过这种局面。
贸易下滑给大大小小的公司都造成了沉重打击。世界第一大集装箱运输公司Maersk Group上个月表示，由于业务下滑，公司计划闲置8艘大型货轮。该公司首席执行长尼尔斯•安德森(Nils S. Andersen)周二向记者表示，他预计形势不会很快好转。
在纽约州西巴比伦，Galkin Automated Products Corp.的床垫制造机出口10月份突然开始下滑。需求放缓势头随后蔓延到了公司的全部市场，包括印度尼西亚、澳大利亚和中东。
Galkin的首席执行长保罗•布洛克(Paul Block)说，谁也无法免疫，拳头只会越攥越紧，世界各地都是如此。这家公司已经裁减了5名员工，为避免再次裁员，剩余25名员工的工作时间也缩短了15%。
贸易增长在经济衰退期通常会放缓，但很少会发生全世界范围的负增长（上次还是在1982年）。不过根据世界银行去年12月份的预测，全球贸易今年将下滑2.1%，超过1975年1.9%的降幅。
全球贸易近期的下滑因大宗商品价格暴跌而进一步加剧，石油价格的跌幅更是创下了历史纪录。仅石油进口一项就占了美国11月份贸易下滑的一半以上：11月份美国进口总额较上月减少250亿美元，而石油进口就减少了136亿美元。
经济还有一线希望，那就是价格回落缓解了家庭和企业的压力。进口原油的平均价格从10月份的每桶92.02美元降至11月份的66.72美元，而且此后还在进一步下滑。油价下滑未来几个月将对减少美国的进口支出起到重要作用。
贸易额下降也收窄了美国的贸易逆差，因为进口额降幅大于出口额降幅。去年11月，美国的进出口额分别减少了12%和5.8%，贸易逆差由10月份的567亿美元收窄至404亿美元，为五年来最低水平。这又帮助提升了美国第四季度国内生产总值(GDP)预期。
不过预计美国去年第四季度GDP折合成年率为减少5%左右，为25年来最差，而全球需求恶化风险预计将拖累2009年经济增长速度。
除油价因素外，对外国商品和服务的需求下降也是美国进口额减少的原因之一。例如，去年11月份美国汽车和相关零部件进口额减少了12亿美元，电视机、珠宝和玩具等外国消费产品进口额减少了38亿美元。
另 一方面，其他国家对美国产品和服务的需求也减弱。位于北卡罗来纳州的合成酒瓶塞生产商Nomacorc LLC首席执行长Lars von Kantzow表示，公司的出口受到两种新增因素的影响：经济衰退导致欧洲多个重要市场的酒类消费减少；信贷危机期间，零售商、分销商和酒厂纷纷减少存货 以释放现金。
布鲁塞尔的查理•吉勒特(Charlie Gillet)也发现了类似趋势，他在拥有12名员工的World Trading Company从事推销员工作。这家公司向1,200家公司销售清洁产品，客户包括很多出口产品生产企业。他说，工厂订单显示其清洁产品存货减少30%- 50%，它们打算将存货量减少一半，并计划将付款周期由45天延长至60天。
比利时总工会(General Federation of Belgian Workers)发言人丹尼尔•理查德(Daniel Richard)表示，工会周二上午召开紧急会议，讨论以出口为基础的生产下滑问题。他说，各方都在准备应对未来几个月的大规模裁员；并对比利时重工业最 终的情况表示担忧。比利时法律允许企业暂时裁员并在一段时间后重新聘用员工，而无需支付高额罚款。
全球最大经济体的危机尤其令发展中国家不安。廉价劳动力和原材料优势帮助发展中国家市场成为全球生产中心，而这些国家经济日益繁荣又扩大了内需。
中国海关总署周二公布，中国去年12月的出口额较上年同期减少2.8%，11月份为减少2.2%；进口额降幅更为明显，11月和12月进口额分别下降17.9%和21.3%。
2005年以来，出口对中国经济增长的贡献在20%左右，而前些年这个百分比还不足10%。海外市场的强劲需求推动中国连续五年经济增长率维持在10%以上。出口的地位很难在短时间内被取代，这也是预计今年中国经济增长率将大幅放缓至8%甚至更低的原因之一。
上述压力的影响正在中国的义乌体现出来。义乌位于上海西南方向，距离上海有四个小时的车程，常常被称做“全球小商品之都；这里的义乌国际商贸城占地370英亩，拥有60,000多家商店，出售袜子、人造珠宝等各种商品。
经济形势好的时候，义乌经常是人山人海，来自美国、欧洲和中东地区的买家来这里大量抢购拉链、笔记本等商品。但最近随着美国和欧洲的新增订单减少，这里的商家正努力在拉丁美洲、俄罗斯和中国国内消费者中开发新的市场，以弥补上述不足，但效果平平。
义乌国际商贸城更加大胆的举措之一是2007年底“进口商品馆”的开业，目的在于吸引国内消费者，销售的产品包括韩国的儿童座椅、加利福尼亚的葡萄酒、日本的陶瓷和意大利的鞋子。一年过去了，这里的商家说他们几乎没做成多少生意。
Kelly Evans / John W. Miller / Mei Fong
（更新完成）
Copyright 2006 - 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved
全球贸易大幅下滑
2009年 01月 14日 12:06世
界各地的对外贸易都在急剧下滑，即便是在衰退中这也是一种不同寻常的情况，而且也增加了各国摆脱经济急速坠落的难度。据 美国商务部周二公布的数据，去年7-11月这四个月期间，世界第一大经济体美国的月度进出口总额从近3,980亿美元降至3,260亿美元，降幅18%。 进口额的下滑占了其中的三分之二，这也解释了很多依赖对美贸易的国家受到冲击的原因。由于美国消费者和企业支出不断下降，在这些国家，作为经济增长重要推 动力的出口正在减少。
日本财务省周二表示，11月份出口较上年同期下滑27%，创下有史以来最大降幅。进口也大幅下滑14%，而这又相应损害了其他国家的出口。世界第二大经济体日本严重依赖出口实现增长。
Reuters
上海一个港口堆放的集装箱
世 界各主要经济体的对外贸易同时下滑，增加了这些国家的企业寻找新客户的压力，而世界各地的消费者实际上都在削减支出。美国、日本和欧元区16国已经陷入衰 退之中，而包括中国在内的新兴经济体近年来出现的白热化增长也在迅速降温。IHS Global Insight驻马萨诸塞州列克星敦的首席美国经济学家尼格尔•高特(Nigel Gault)说，我们认为这将是二战以来最严重的一场全球性衰退。
世界贸易信息服务股份公司(Global Trade Information Services)的老板唐•布拉舍(Don Brasher)说，他预计全球贸易活动的下行走势将至少再持续6个月。他说，在运营这家公司的15年中，自己从未见过这种局面。
贸易下滑给大大小小的公司都造成了沉重打击。世界第一大集装箱运输公司Maersk Group上个月表示，由于业务下滑，公司计划闲置8艘大型货轮。该公司首席执行长尼尔斯•安德森(Nils S. Andersen)周二向记者表示，他预计形势不会很快好转。
在纽约州西巴比伦，Galkin Automated Products Corp.的床垫制造机出口10月份突然开始下滑。需求放缓势头随后蔓延到了公司的全部市场，包括印度尼西亚、澳大利亚和中东。
Galkin的首席执行长保罗•布洛克(Paul Block)说，谁也无法免疫，拳头只会越攥越紧，世界各地都是如此。这家公司已经裁减了5名员工，为避免再次裁员，剩余25名员工的工作时间也缩短了15%。
贸易增长在经济衰退期通常会放缓，但很少会发生全世界范围的负增长（上次还是在1982年）。不过根据世界银行去年12月份的预测，全球贸易今年将下滑2.1%，超过1975年1.9%的降幅。
经济还有一线希望，那就是价格回落缓解了家庭和企业的压力。进口原油的平均价格从10月份的每桶92.02美元降至11月份的66.72美元，而且此后还在进一步下滑。油价下滑未来几个月将对减少美国的进口支出起到重要作用。
贸易额下降也收窄了美国的贸易逆差，因为进口额降幅大于出口额降幅。去年11月，美国的进出口额分别减少了12%和5.8%，贸易逆差由10月份的567亿美元收窄至404亿美元，为五年来最低水平。这又帮助提升了美国第四季度国内生产总值(GDP)预期。
不过预计美国去年第四季度GDP折合成年率为减少5%左右，为25年来最差，而全球需求恶化风险预计将拖累2009年经济增长速度。
除油价因素外，对外国商品和服务的需求下降也是美国进口额减少的原因之一。例如，去年11月份美国汽车和相关零部件进口额减少了12亿美元，电视机、珠宝和玩具等外国消费产品进口额减少了38亿美元。
另 一方面，其他国家对美国产品和服务的需求也减弱。位于北卡罗来纳州的合成酒瓶塞生产商Nomacorc LLC首席执行长Lars von Kantzow表示，公司的出口受到两种新增因素的影响：经济衰退导致欧洲多个重要市场的酒类消费减少；信贷危机期间，零售商、分销商和酒厂纷纷减少存货 以释放现金。
布鲁塞尔的查理•吉勒特(Charlie Gillet)也发现了类似趋势，他在拥有12名员工的World Trading Company从事推销员工作。这家公司向1,200家公司销售清洁产品，客户包括很多出口产品生产企业。他说，工厂订单显示其清洁产品存货减少30%- 50%，它们打算将存货量减少一半，并计划将付款周期由45天延长至60天。
比利时总工会(General Federation of Belgian Workers)发言人丹尼尔•理查德(Daniel Richard)表示，工会周二上午召开紧急会议，讨论以出口为基础的生产下滑问题。他说，各方都在准备应对未来几个月的大规模裁员；并对比利时重工业最 终的情况表示担忧。比利时法律允许企业暂时裁员并在一段时间后重新聘用员工，而无需支付高额罚款。
全球最大经济体的危机尤其令发展中国家不安。廉价劳动力和原材料优势帮助发展中国家市场成为全球生产中心，而这些国家经济日益繁荣又扩大了内需。
中国海关总署周二公布，中国去年12月的出口额较上年同期减少2.8%，11月份为减少2.2%；进口额降幅更为明显，11月和12月进口额分别下降17.9%和21.3%。
2005年以来，出口对中国经济增长的贡献在20%左右，而前些年这个百分比还不足10%。海外市场的强劲需求推动中国连续五年经济增长率维持在10%以上。出口的地位很难在短时间内被取代，这也是预计今年中国经济增长率将大幅放缓至8%甚至更低的原因之一。
经济形势好的时候，义乌经常是人山人海，来自美国、欧洲和中东地区的买家来这里大量抢购拉链、笔记本等商品。但最近随着美国和欧洲的新增订单减少，这里的商家正努力在拉丁美洲、俄罗斯和中国国内消费者中开发新的市场，以弥补上述不足，但效果平平。
义乌国际商贸城更加大胆的举措之一是2007年底“进口商品馆”的开业，目的在于吸引国内消费者，销售的产品包括韩国的儿童座椅、加利福尼亚的葡萄酒、日本的陶瓷和意大利的鞋子。一年过去了，这里的商家说他们几乎没做成多少生意。
Kelly Evans / John W. Miller / Mei Fong
（更新完成）
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