The Wall Street Journal

增进美中关系并非易事

2009年 02月 23日 12:09

在

美国国务卿希拉里(Hillary Clinton)结束了对中国的访问，也是她亚洲四国之行的最后一站后，看来外界对美中关系有望加强持乐观看法。

不过，随着政治话题从高层面的外交关系转到贸易和就业这类关系到国计民生的问题上，要取得成果并非轻而易举的事。

两国都极大地依赖于保持与对方的良好关系。美国是中国最大的出口市场，而中国则持有巨额美国国债，占了中国1.95万亿美元外汇储备的大部分。然而，全球金融危机却给美中关系带来了新的压力，由此而来的是两国都面临更大的压力，需要首先关注自己的头等大事。

对北京方面来说，在中国出口业下滑之际，让2,000多万最近失业的外来务工人员重新就业，这是它最关注的问题。上个月中国出口额较上年同期下滑17.5%，这也是造成就业岗位减少的主要原因。

金融危机的另外一个牺牲品是外商直接投资。中国商务部上周公布说，1月份中国外商直接投资为75.4亿美元，较上年同期减少33%。

或许这个事实也解释了希拉里为何没有再次公开抱怨中国人为地压低人民币汇率，通过这种不公平的做法让本国出口商获得贸易优势。对人民币汇率的不满由来已久，美国财政部长盖特纳(Timothy Geithner)几周前曾经提出过。

今天，更大的问题似乎是保持国际贸易运转，避免贸易保护主义抬头或是“以邻为壑”的货币贬值。

人民币贬值？

中国上周透露说正在讨论贸易保护主义措施。

例如，有关人民币汇率的讨论现在已经绕了一圈，回到了原点：人民币要贬值，而不是升值。

首先，《China Briefing》杂志报导称，中国可能会让人民币贬值。报导援引国家发改委副主任张晓强的话称，美元兑人民可能会从目前的6.8元升至6.95-7.00元的区间。报导随后称中国银监会主席刘明康发表了类似的评论。

这两位官员此后一直否认曾说过这样的话，《China Briefing》杂志也收回了报导。

不管怎样，这都是个警报，说明中国不会让自己在这个问题上被逼得太紧。如果中国的出口进一步恶化，让人民币贬值的呼声很可能会增强。

在1997年开始的亚洲金融危机期间，在该地区货币普遍走软之际，中国没有让人民币贬值，为该地区提供了稳定性，它也因此受到了广泛的赞扬。我们得看看这次中国的做法是否会有所不同。

大部分经济学家都认为，让中国产品变得更便宜一点儿不会起太大作用，特别是如果西方消费者仍不花钱。让人民币贬值几乎肯定会令贸易保护主义升温。

上周有关贸易保护主义的另一个警兆是，有报导称中国将重启两年前取消的5%的铝进口税，不过后来又否认了。

印度早些时候说，它将对中国产铝征收额外关税。印度还对中国玩具实施6个月的进口禁令。

与此同时，有报导称，美国钢铁生产商已经准备好就中国倾销钢铁一事向世界贸易组织提出新的抗议。

实施贸易保护主义措施的压力并不仅仅是个国际性问题，据报导在中国的省市也存在这种压力。安徽省已经勒令该省汽车厂商购买本省的钢材。

不受欢迎的出口产品

最后，中国持续了10年的两位数增速意味着，从钢铁、汽车、电视机到玩具等各类产品都积累了大量产能。很多情况下，中国依然要设法找到市场。

一些报导称，原定出口的产品如今被内销。一个更令人不安的情况可能是反过来的情况。

举例来讲，在眼下不景气的形势下，中国的汽车市场仍表现不错，汽车销量上周超过美国，达到79万辆。不过，今后还会有不利因素，这种局面有可能会发生变化。

随着美国和欧洲的汽车业陷入严重危机，中国大批没能内销、用于出口的汽车很可能是最不受欢迎的。

不过另一方面，美国正指望中国收购部分资产，进而救助陷入困境的美国汽车业。通用汽车(General Motors)一直在谈判出售旗下“悍马”(Hummer)品牌的事宜，福特汽车(Ford Motor)也在谈判出售沃尔沃(Volvo)，不过这两桩交易看起来都不太可能达成。

这类问题，再加上国家增持受助企业，这些很可能会给贸易关系带来更大的压力。

我们目睹着真正全球化的经济正努力恢复平衡，大量过剩产能出现，此时遏制贸易保护主义将是一项挑战。

Craig Stephen

(本文译自Market Watch, Craig Stephen是MarketWatch的自由撰稿人。)

Clinton visit promises stronger U.S.-China ties

2009年 02月 23日 12:09

There appears to be much optimism of stronger U.S.-China ties after Secretary of State Hillary Clinton completed her visit to Beijing on the final leg of her Asian tour.

That will be no easy achievement, however, as the politics move from high-level diplomacy to the bread-and-butter issues of trade and jobs.

Both countries have a lot riding on getting along. While the U.S. is China's largest export market, China sits on a huge pile of U.S. Treasurys that make up the bulk of its $1.95 trillion of foreign reserves. Still, the global financial crisis has placed new strains on the U.S.-China relationship, bringing with it added pressure to look after number one first.

Getting some of the 20 million recently unemployed migrant workers back into jobs after the wheels came off China's export machine is a leading concern for Beijing. There were 17.5% fewer Chinese exports shipped last month compared to a year earlier, which explains why there are fewer jobs around.

Another casualty of the financial crisis is foreign direct investment. Last week, the Ministry of Commerce revealed FDI destined for China fell 33% in January from a year earlier to $7.54 billion.

Perhaps this reality explains why Clinton held back from repeating publicly the complaint that China keeps its currency artificially suppressed to give itself an unfair trade advantage. This longstanding gripe was made by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner some weeks back.

Today, the bigger issue appears to be to keep international trade going and avoiding a lurch toward protectionism or beggar-thy-neighbor currency devaluations.

Yuan devaluation?

Last week, China let it be known that protectionist measures are on the table.

Talk on the yuan's trading level, for example, has now moved full circle: the mainland currency is depreciating, not getting stronger.

First, China Briefing magazine reported that China may devalue the yuan. Zhang Xiaoqiang, a deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, was quoted as saying that the yuan may weaken to a range of 6.95 to 7.00 against the dollar, from its current level of 6.80. Then Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, was quoted making a similar comment.

The two officials have since denied their statements and the magazine retracted its report.

Nevertheless, this serves as a warning that China will not be pushed too hard on this one. And if exports get much worse, calls for currency devaluation are likely to grow.

During the Asian financial crises beginning in 1997, China was widely praised for not devaluing the yuan and providing stability as currencies around the region fell. We will have to see if this time it will be different.

Most economists agree making Chinese-made goods a little cheaper would not deliver much gain, especially if Western consumers were still not spending. And letting the yuan sink would almost certainly up the ante on trade protectionism.

The other warning shots on protectionism last week were reports -- later denied -- that China would reintroduce a 5% tax on aluminum imports it canceled two years ago.
India had earlier said it was going to impose a duty on Chinese aluminum and also imposed a six-month ban on imported Chinese toys.

Meanwhile, U.S. steel makers are reportedly ready to make new protests to the World Trade Organization about China dumping its steel.

The pressure to adopt protectionist measures is not purely an international issue, but has also been reported in Chinese provinces. Anhui province in eastern China has ordered its car makers to buy steel from within the province.

Unwelcome exports

Ultimately China's decade of double-digit growth means it has built up a massive production capacity from steel to cars, TVs and toys. In many cases it will still be looking to find markets.

There are some reports of goods destined for export now being sold on the domestic market. A more troubling scenario could be the reverse.

For instance, China's automobile market has still held up fairly well in the slowdown and last month surpassed the U.S. in vehicle sales, with 790,000 units. But there are headwinds ahead and this could change.

With the automobile industry in the U.S. and Europe on its knees, a wave of unsold made-in-China cars shipped for export would likely be most unwelcome.

Still, the other side of the coin is the U.S. is currently looking for China to help out its struggling auto industry by buying some assets. General Motors Corp. has been in talks to sell Hummer and Ford Motor Co.to sell Volvo, though neither deal looks likely to be going through.

These kinds of issues are likely to place added strain on trading relationships, together with increasing state ownership of bailed-out companies.

As we witness the rebalancing of a truly globalized economy and large pockets of redundant capacity emerge, staving off protectionism is going to be a challenge.

Craig Stephen

本文网址: http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090223/chw121710.asp?camp=china