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Surge In Trade Protection May Deepen Global Crisis 2009年 01月 12日 16:37A wave of protectionism is swelling around the world that could further damage struggling economies. Industries are starting to line up in Beijing, Brussels and Washington for import protection. That has happened in past downturns, too, but this time the restrictions may bite harder because of the global nature of the problems. During the 1980s, Japan could afford not to retaliate against U.S. quotas on steel and automobiles because Tokyo's economy was humming. There are no clear economic winners now, making it much harder for any government to turn the other cheek. The global turn to stimulus spending also may come wrapped in protection, as each country tries to ensure that its industries benefit. In the U.S., congressional Democrats and their allies in steel, textile and organized labor are pushing to include strong 'Buy America' provisions in a U.S. stimulus program that would limit spending to firms in the U.S. Already European officials are crying foul. 'There is no such thing as free trade,' said Daniel DiMicco, the chief executive of steelmaker Nucor Corp., who is pushing for Buy America measures. 'All trade is managed.' Trade protection can deepen economic problems and shut off a potential engine of growth at a time when consumer demand and business investment are sagging globally. Already, the World Bank forecasts that global trade will shrink by 2.1% this year, the first decline since 1982. While global trade deals have greatly reduced tariffs, they do little to fend off protection. Under World Trade Organization rules, countries establish formal tariff levels, which are often very high, and then apply lower tariffs. That gives them leeway to boost tariffs without violating WTO rules. That's starting to happen now. Ecuador announced in the fall that it was lifting tariffs across the board, increasing the levy on some imported meat to 85.5% from 25%. India raised tariffs on steel, while Russia, which isn't a WTO member, boosted levies on imported cars. Industries are also starting legal procedures at home to block competitors that get certain subsidies from their home government or that 'dump' products abroad -- meaning they sell at supposedly below-market prices. When a government approves a complaint, it imposes prohibitive tariffs. Retaliation is commonplace. Global economic integration was expected to make dumping cases obsolete. If a steel company owns plants in the U.S., India and Brazil, the theory went, it wouldn't join dumping cases for fear that some of its facilities would be targeted. Instead, said a WTO official, dumping cases have become potentially more potent. That same steel company can now file complaints in all three countries against a competitor in, say, China to cripple it. According to the latest WTO survey, 16 countries launched 85 new antidumping cases during the first six months of 2008, compared with 61 investigations the year earlier. Expect a sharp rise in those numbers because the economic crisis deepened in the second half of the year. Almost half the complaints targeted China. Other countries are finding different ways to block imports. Indonesia is requiring importers to get special licenses as a way to control imports of clothing, shoes and electronics. Mexico threatened to bar some meat imports from the U.S., which U.S. farmers viewed as retaliation for new rules requiring meat imported into the U.S. to be labeled by country. The U.S. and Mexico are trying to resolve the controversy. 'The surprising thing is how much room there is within the WTO framework to increase protection without overtly violating the agreement,' said Gary Hufbauer, a trade specialist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a free-trade think tank. WTO rules don't require government stimulus plans to be open to all bidders. Only a dozen countries, plus the European Union, have signed on to a WTO code aimed at ensuring that government purchases are open to foreign firms. Even those that sign the accord can take exceptions, as the U.S. has done for purchases by the Pentagon, and state and local governments. Much of the stimulus plan being concocted by President-elect Barack Obama could fall under Buy America provisions that don't violate any WTO obligations. The Obama economic team hasn't said how open it will make the plan to foreign bidders, or how it would deal with foreign governments that exclude U.S. firms. During the presidential campaign, Mr. Obama campaigned for a Buy American plan and attacked Republican Sen. John McCain for opposing restrictions on foreign firms. Whatever Mr. Obama decides, Congress is bound to push for explicit Buy America provisions, which have broad bipartisan appeal The $25 billion auto-loan program approved late last year under the Bush administration was written in a way that largely excludes foreign auto transplants. That prompted a complaint by the head of the European Commission. Last week, House Transportation Committee Chairman James Oberstar, a Minnesota Democrat, unveiled an $85 billion infrastructure program that would require the steel, iron and manufactured goods used in the projects to be made in the U.S. The only way to head off global protection is a global response. That would provide some political cover at home for governments that keep their markets open. For years, political leaders have been urging the completion of the tottering Doha global trade talks, although they haven't made enough concessions to seal a deal. While a pact would be useful, it would take years to complete and wouldn't close many WTO loopholes. The April meeting of the so-called Group of 20 countries, which includes the most powerful industrial and developing nations, is a better forum to reach a common front against protection. When the group last met, in mid-November, it agreed to 'refrain from raising new barriers' to trade or investment over the following 12 months. But a few days later, India increased tariffs on steel, iron and soybeans. Thus, the assembled nations will have to do a lot better in keeping trade open or risk undermining their efforts to lift the global economy out of recession. 'Pledges without rules don't mean much,' said Rufus Yerxa, the WTO's deputy director-general. Bob Davis 贸易保护主义高涨可能加剧全球危机 2009年 01月 12日 16:37一 波贸易保护主义目前正在全球高涨，这可能会进一步打击陷入困境的各个经济体。从北京、布鲁塞尔到华盛顿，各个行业都开始排队要求政府保护进口。过去经济下滑时期，这种情况也曾经出现过，但这次由于全球经济普遍遭受问题，贸易限制可能会带来更为严重的后果。 上世纪八十年代，日本经济蒸蒸日上，因而有实力可以不对美国的钢铁和汽车进口配额措施进行报复。但现在全球各个经济体的日子都不好过，没有哪国政府有能力如此慷慨豁达。  钢铁公司Nucor Corp.首席执行长多米库(Daniel DiMicco)表示，根本没有自由贸易这回事。所有的贸易都是有管理的。他目前正呼吁采取措施“购买美国货”。 在全球消费者需求和企业投资下滑之际，贸易保护主义可能会加剧经济问题，关闭经济增长一个可能的引擎。世界银行(World Bank)已经预计，今年全球贸易可能会下降2.1%，为1982年以来首次下滑。 尽管全球贸易协议极大地降低了关税，但在防止贸易保护主义方面却是收效甚微。根据世界贸易组织(WTO)的规定，各个国家制定通常非常高的官方关税水平，然后再实施较低的实际关税。这给予他们一定空间，可以在不违反世贸组织规定的情况下提高关税。 这种情况正开始出现了。去年秋天厄瓜多尔宣布全线上调关税，部分进口肉类的关税从25%提高到85.5%。印度提高了钢产品关税，而非世贸组织成员国的俄罗斯也提高了轿车进口关税。 各个行业还开始求助于本国法律程序，以阻止那些从它们所在国政府获得某种补贴或在海外倾销产品（即以低于市场价销售产品）的外来竞争者。当一国政府批准投诉后，就会设置禁止性关税。而由此引发的报复措施也就不足为奇了。 此前我们曾指望全球经济一体化会令倾销案成为过去时。从理论上来说，如果一家钢铁公司在美国、印度和巴西都有工厂，它就不愿意提起倾销诉讼，因为它会担心旗下工厂也会成为诉讼对象。但实际上，一位世贸组织官员称，倾销诉讼已变得越来越具有潜在的强大影响。上述那家钢铁公司现在可以在全部三个国家对比如说中国的一个竞争对手提起倾销诉讼，以打击对手。 根据最新的世贸组织调查，去年上半年有16个国家提出85起新的反倾销案，高于上年同期的61起。预计去年下半年这一数字会因为经济危机恶化而大幅上升。几乎半数的诉讼案都是针对中国的。 其他国家也在寻找不同手段阻碍进口。印尼正要求进口商获得特殊许可，以此控制衣物、鞋类和电器产品的进口。墨西哥威胁要禁止从美国进口部分肉类，美国农民认为这是在报复美国要求进口肉类按照国家进行标签的新规定。美国和墨西哥两国正努力化解争议。 支持自由贸易的智库、美国彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的贸易专家豪夫鲍尔(Gary Hufbauer)表示，令人吃惊的是，在世贸组织框架内还有很大空间，可以提高保护主义程度又不公开违反协议。 世贸组织并没有规定政府刺激计划要向所有竞标者开放。只有十来个国家与欧盟一道签署了世贸组织一份协议，旨在确保政府采购向外国公司开放。即便这些签署协议的国家也会采取例外措施，正如美国五角大楼、各州和地方政府的采购就不受协议约束。美国当选总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)正在制定的经济刺激计划中许多内容都可能会受到“购买美国货”条款的影响，而并不违反世贸组织任何规定。 奥巴马经济团队目前没有公布经济刺激计划对外国竞标者的开放程度，也没有透露会怎么对待那些排除美国公司的外国政府。在总统竞选过程中，奥巴马打出了“购买美国货”计划的大旗，并攻击共和党参议员麦凯恩反对限制外国公司的立场。 无论奥巴马作出什么决定，国会都会致力制定购买美国货的明确条款，这些条款获得了两党议员支持。去年年底，布什政府通过的250亿美元汽车贷款计划就基本排除了在美国设厂的外国汽车厂商。这已经引发了欧盟委员会首脑的抱怨。上周，美国众议院运输委员会主席、明尼苏达州民主党众议员奥伯斯塔尔(James Oberstar)公布了一项850亿美元的基础设施建设计划，这项计划要求必须使用美国制造的钢铁和制成品。 阻止全球保护主义的唯一手段就是全球一致行动。这会为保持市场开放的政府提供一些政治支持。多年来，政治领袖一直督促完成多哈全球贸易谈判，虽然他们并没有作出足够让步来达成协议。尽管这个协议可能会有作用，但要完成这一协议可能还需要数年之久，而且还无法弥补WTO的许多漏洞。 将于4月份召开的20国集团会议是针对保护主义达成全球共同阵线的更好论坛；该集团包括了全球最强大的发达国家和发展中国家。在去年11月中旬的上次会议上，各成员国同意在随后12个月避免对贸易或投资设置新壁垒。但就在数天后，印度就提高了钢、铁和大豆产品的关税。 因此，这些成员国必须在保证贸易开放方面做得更好，否则它们就有可能破坏带动全球经济走出衰退的努力。世界贸易组织副总干事耶克萨(Rufus Yerxa)表示，空有承诺却无行动没有多大意义。 Bob Davis
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